Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Detroit Tigers Mid-Season Report Card: Position Players

Alex Avila – (C-):  Everyone gave him a free pass for his 3-for-41 performance in the post-season last year because the young catcher was very beat up from playing a ridiculous amount of consecutive games heading into October.  This free pass hinged on the idea that he would bounce back with the stellar play that earned him a Silver Slugger, an All-Star appearance and placed him 12th in the AL MVP voting last year.  Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened.  The heavy bat that resulted in sharp line drives a year ago looks slow and his power has been absent for much of the first half of the season.  While he may bounce back, fans probably need to temper their expectations for Avila going forward as he may be more of a .265, 15 home run a year type of player who will be solid behind the plate. 

Brennan Boesch – (D):  One of the more frustrating players in the Tiger lineup, Boesch was woeful in the #2 hole throughout the beginning of the season before losing his spot to Andy Dirks and, eventually, Quintin Berry.  His long, looping swing has made him look foolish more often than not and his on-base percentage (.277) makes it hard to put him into the lineup.  With limited fielding skills, the lefty’s only shot of regaining his status as an everyday player is to be more patient at the plate and come through with some of the timely hits that made him one of the more dangerous hitters in last year’s lineup before he fell to injury.

Miguel Cabrera – (A):  Big surprise here.  The slugger is on pace for another MVP-caliber season and leads the team in RBI (71), home runs (18), doubles (26) and is second in batting average (.324) and on-base percentage (.382).  His play at third has not been spectacular, but has exceeded the expectations of most as many fans (myself included) feared that the big man could be the victim of frequent grounders to the face (although he does have a pretty cool battle scar).  His walks are a bit low this season, but as his bat heated up entering the break, opposing pitchers seemed less and less willing to pitch to him.  His ability to stay on the field and perform at the highest level is reason enough to not give up on this team despite a lackluster first half.

Prince Fielder – (B+):  The power that seemed spotty throughout a lot of the first half of the season started to pick up during the stretch entering the break and his performance in the Home Run Derby showed the type of power the big man has.  While the fact that 11 of his first 12 home runs were solo shots left fans scratching their heads, Fielder has filled the role that Victor Martinez played last season admirably as the left has hit .372 with runners in scoring position. 

He is a hack at first base, but we weren’t really expecting Gold Gloves when we signed him.  If the slugger can provide 30 homers, 40 doubles, 100+ RBI and a near .300 average (which he is on pace to do), then we have gotten our first-year returns on the 214 million dollar investment.

Austin Jackson – (A+):  My vote for Tiger MVP of the first half of the season and, surprisingly enough, it is not just because we all expect Cabrera and Verlander to perform at this level.  It’s because he’s been that good.

Wrap your head around this.

Austin Jackson’s 2012 rankings in the American League:  Second in batting average (.332), second in on-base percentage (.408), fourth in runs (54), fifth in OPS (.953), seventh in hits (84), eighth in slugging (.545), T-first in triples (5).

As impressive as these stats are, his rankings in runs, hits and triples are even more astounding when you consider that he has missed 22 games this season.

To put some perspective on this, let’s take a look at 2011.

Austin Jackson’s 2011 rankings among Detroit Tiger players with at least 350 at-bats:  Seventh in batting average (.249), sixth in on-base percentage (.317), second in runs (90), seventh in OPS (.690), fourth in hits (147), seventh in slugging (.374), first in triples (11).

Finally, while the Tigers appear to be one of the worst fielding teams in the majors, the youngster is one of three center fielders in baseball that has not committed an error this season (0 errors in 155 total chances).

If (and I understand this is a big “IF”) Jackson can continue to play at this incredible level, I feel that it is very safe to say that we won the Granderson trade.

Jhonny Peralta – (C):  The cement shoe-wearing shortstop’s lackluster play in the field and at the plate is not quite as infuriating as Raburn or Boesch, but it is still a far cry from the numbers that earned him an All-Star nod a year ago.  He has shown the ability to find gaps (18 doubles in 77 games) and he generally doesn’t make mistakes when the ball is hit directly (key word being DIRECTLY) to short.  He is not the main problem, but certainly hasn’t been the answer.

Ryan Raburn – (Z-):  French Fries.  “Free Falling” by Tom Petty.  Freddie Mitchell’s hands.  These are just a few examples of why I will not degrade the letter “F” with this grade.  There’s not much to say about a guy who literally cannot hit his weight (.171 average, 185 lbs).  Things don’t get much better in the field as the ability to field many positions badly is not an ability in my opinion.  The only thing that keeps him in a Tiger uniform is his history of hitting after the All-Star break.

From 2009 to 2011, Raburn hit a combined .225 with 16 home runs in 497 pre- All-Star Game at-bats.  In that same three-year span, Raburn hit .320 with 29 home runs in 522 at-bats after the break.

For Raburn’s sake, this trend better continue to be a recurring one as he may not make it out of the month of July (18 games) if his bat doesn’t defrost.

Ramon Santiago – (D):  This one is strange.  He should be the everyday second baseman for this team even though he has shown this season that he is not an everyday player.  He has been hitting better as of late and is definitely our best option in the field, but that’s not saying too much. 

Delmon Young – (D+):  Yes, he had four home runs in each of the four games heading into the All-Star break.  Yes, a .271 average and 10 home runs are respectable numbers at this point in the season. 

But…

No, nine walks in 315 plate appearances is not OK.  No, having an on-base percentage under .300 when your job as a designated hitter is to get on base is not OK.  No, having an OPS of .716, which ranks behind your struggling catcher and unspectacular shortstop, is not OK. 

Don’t fall in love with streaky hitting.  His inability to produce in the #5 spot in the order has been a major Achilles heel for this team this season.

OTHERS:

Quintin Berry – (A-):  A career .267 hitter in the minors, the 27-year-old journeyman was called up in the wake of Austin Jackson’s abdominal injury and provided the type of baserunning speed that has not been seen since Brian L. Hunter.  After some initial reluctance, manager Jim Leyland has decided to play the hot hand and keep Berry in right field and in the #2 spot more often than not.  Though the lefty has cooled a bit as his playing time increased, he still maintains a .299 average and .388 on-base percentage to go with five triples (tied for most in AL) and a perfect 12-for-12 stolen base ratio.  He may hit the wall following the break and eventually fade off into oblivion a la Chris Shelton, but for now, he has been an unexpected source of speed and excitement on an underachieving ballclub.

Andy Dirks – (B+):  I feel like Dirks should get an INC for being injured for as long as he has, but I was very impressed with what I saw when he took over the reins in left.  He is a solid fielder and was one of the team’s best hitters during some of the team’s early season struggles.  His ascension to a seemingly-viable everyday option in the outfield shouldn’t come as a complete surprise as the lefty earned celebrity status in the Dominican Republic over the winter for his play and personality in the Dominican Winter League.  Dirks, who was hilariously dubbed “El Gringo” during his time in the Dominican, could provide that much-needed bat that the Tigers have been missing when he eventually returns from the DL.

Don Kelly – (D):  I never have been a big fan of Kelly, but I understand his role on the team.  While his batting average is atrocious this season (.185), he is a solid late-inning defensive replacement in the outfield or at third base. 

Gerald Laird aka G-Money – (B+):  The man with the greatest/most unfitting nickname in the organization has been a pleasant surprise in his return to the Tigers.  Laird provides experience as Avila’s backup, is a solid defender and performed well during Avila’s stint on the DL earlier in the season.  I don’t expect him to continue to hit over .300, but if provides a .270 average and spell Avila to keep him from wearing down, it has been a successful season for the veteran.

Pitching and overall grades will be posted later this week.

Friday, May 18, 2012

RED BULLISH: Riverview's Steven Simon soars to Austria on Paper Wings

Red Bull, paper airplanes and Austria. Three seemingly unrelated things now have one thing in common: Steven Simon. Simon, a Riverview High School graduate, just finished up his freshman year at Michigan State University with a bang by competing in the Red Bull Paper Wings World Finals in Austria earlier this month. Every three years, Red Bull holds a worldwide competition on college campuses to find the best-of-the-best at throwing paper airplanes. To the surprise of many, including himself, Simon found himself in this select group. On March 21, Simon was told by his resident advisor that Red Bull was holding a paper airplane throwing competition that night in the gymnasium. The competition included three categories: distance, airtime and aerobatics. The winner in each category would bring home some Red Bull and a $50 gift card. Intrigued and without plans for the evening, Simon went online, looked up how to fold a plane for the airtime competition and made his way down to the event. “A couple hours before the event, I looked up how to fold a plane for that event,” Simon said. “You want as much of a surface-to-wing ratio as possible and your plane is basically a giant rectangle with huge wings.” Simon surprised himself at the event with a throw that kept his plane in the air for almost nine seconds. “I liked folding paper airplanes as a kid, but I was never really too good at it,” Simon said. “I was pretty amazed by the time that I got.” The freshman easily won the competition and was happy to leave with some extra spending money and Red Bull. He was about to be a lot happier. “One day, I was sitting around in my dorm and got a phone call,” Simon said. “Someone calls me and says, ‘You had a pretty nice throw the other day. You’re going to Austria.’” This someone was a representative from Red Bull who informed Simon that his throw of 8.89 seconds was the best in the Midwest and qualified him for the Red Bull Paper Wings World Final at the illustrious Hangar-7 in Salzburg, Austria. On May 2, Simon found himself on a plane to Austria and was awestruck by the sight of Hangar-7. “It was pretty spectacular,” Simon said. “It’s a world-famous hangar that’s a museum with crazy cars and planes. The building is designed in the shape of a plane wing and is made of mostly glass.” The competition began on May 4 and Simon’s event took place the following day. The top 10 in each category advanced to the tournament finals. Facing many experienced throwers, Simon placed 50th in a stacked field of seasoned veterans and did not advance to the finals. “There was one competitor that did not let his planes out of his sight,” Simon said. “I mean, he carried it with him everywhere, including the bathroom. Others were in their forties and enrolled in classes just to be considered college students for the competition.” The competition only lasted two days, but Red Bull offered the participants a chance to stay and take in the sights. Instead of opting to leave right after the competition, Simon was allowed to stay and sightsee over the next week in Austria and Germany. “We took this opportunity to stay until the 11th and it was amazing,” Simon said. “My favorite part was traveling around Munich because it’s so full of history with amazing buildings and sights.” What started as a way to kill time on a Wednesday night turned into the realization of an unknown talent and the experience of a lifetime. An experience Simon says he plans to have again. “I definitely plan on keeping it going,” Simon said. “The competition happens every three years, so I’ll have an opportunity my senior year.” After seeing how seriously this event is taken by his opponents, Simon has developed new techniques and a training regime he will utilize over the next three years. “First of all, if you put your paper in the freezer, it allows the plane to fly higher and longer,” Simon said. “For training, I plan on going to the gym, picking up the heaviest weight I can and throwing it.” While Simon suggests that all college students take advantage of this unique competition when it comes back around, he also offers a friendly warning. “I definitely suggest trying this out if Red Bull comes to a campus, just not in three years,” Simon said. “Wait until I’m done, because in three years, it’s mine.”

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

NHL Playoff Live Blog: Nashville @ Detroit Game 4

With Game 3 being essentially a must-win for the Detroit Red Wings, I decided to sit down with my trusty netbook, kick my feet up and immerse myself in some playoff hockey.

7:41 – The puck drops and Game 4 is underway. Interesting stat put up showing that Jimmy Howard is 4-0 in career Game 4’s. Let’s see if he can continue that streak.

7:42 – Hey, the Red Wings won a faceoff!

7:43 – I really like the way this second line has meshed throughout the season. Nice early chance, albeit at a difficult angle, for Zetterberg. Makes you wonder how different this series would be looking if Hank was able to cash in on a few more of the chances he’s gotten throughout through the first three games.

7:45 – Wings doing a nice job of keeping the puck out of their zone through the first couple of shifts. Ian White just went old school with a nice hip check at the blue line.

7:47 – Top three things to come out of Canada: 1) Our Lady Peace. 2) Bret “The Hitman” Hart. 3) Mike Babcock’s voice. Random? Maybe. Accurate? Without a doubt.

7:51 – Great feed by Datsyuk in front of the net for a quality chance by Cleary. It’s nice to see Cleary get an opportunity to play with some top line guys and Pavel continues to make his wizardry with the puck look simple.

7:55 – How did that not go in??? Great job by the Nashville defender to back his goalie up. Better question…what exactly was that penalty for? Detroit is the beneficiary of an early dumb call.

7:58 – Quincy saved a couple clearing opportunities and nearly set up a nice scoring chance, but Detroit couldn’t capitalize on an early power play.

8:00 – Good scoring chance by Pavel. This type of game terrifies me. The Red Wings look dominant throughout the first 10 minutes, but can’t put it in the back of the net. This has the makings for one of those games where we head into the first intermission trailing 1-0 despite doubling our opponent in shots. Mark my words, Nashville will score first.

8:01 – …whew…that was close. Quick strike scoring chance for the Preds. Didn’t want to be right that quickly.

8:04 – Valid penalty to Bertuzzi will give Howard his first test of the game.

8:07 – Nevermind. Obvious tripping call puts us in the 4-of-4.

8:08 – Zetterberg with a beautiful pass through the middle to Kronwall. The big defenseman pulled off a nifty move that I thought was outside of his skill set, but it went just wide of the net. Good chances early for Detroit.

8:11 – Another Nashville penalty. We really need to cash in on one of these early. I don’t like the prospect of coming back from a goal down with the way Pekka Rinne is playing.

8:14 – Datsyuk called for tripping. This whole “not on my watch” attitude the refs seem to have in this series is getting to be a bit tiresome. I will say that the calls have been subpar on both sides.

8:21 – 0-0 after one period. 11-7 advantage for Detroit in the shot department. Feels like much more than that. Again, this concerns me. As happy as I am to outplay them through the first 20 minutes, nothing is more important in this series than scoring the first goal. I still have a bad feeling.

8:33 – I really dig the Ram vs. Mule Dodge Ram commercials. Franzen’s resemblance to Arnold Schwarzenegger is enough to make me laugh. “I don’t know, but you’re going to need a bigger shovel…arrrrgggghhhh GET TO THA CHOPPA!!!”

8:34 – I’m a simple man.

8:39 – And we’re back. First goal, guys. First goal.

8:41 – My roommate, who is a firefighter, just got home from a long day. Less than two minutes into sitting down to enjoy the game, he gets a call for an elderly person who is experiencing pain in his legs. Respect your local firefighters, folks. While you are sitting on your butts watching the game, many of them are making sure that senior citizens avoid Charlie horses and calf cramps.

8:45: Don’t mess with Drew Miller aka “The Silver Fox.” Miller has actually played nicely as a quiet difference maker with solid puck possession and defense throughout the series.

8:47 – Hearing Mickey Redmond badmouth a player is pretty entertaining. On Patric Hornqvist: “He’s the type of guy who you just laugh at. What’s he gonna do? He’s not gonna beat you up.”

8:51 – Pile up in front of the net. Rinne’s one vulnerability seems to be rebounds. You can’t call it a weakness because every goalie in the NHL has the same vulnerability.

8:55 – Nice steal and feed from Kronwall to Holmstrom for a slapshot from the wing. Kronwall continues to impress me as a player as he seems to have evolved quite nicely into a very nice defenseman.

9:02 – I love Zetterberg, but if he had half of the vision that Datsyuk has, he’d be the best player in the game. Missed a wide open Fippula on the left side.

9:03 – 30 minutes in and Detroit has outshot the Preds 21-8…and it’s still 0-0. Impressed with how they are playing. Still terrified.

9:09 – Kyle Quincy with a BIG poke check on a streaking Shea Weber to break up a scoring chance for Nashville. Weber found an opening on the backside and was hit with a nice pass for what could have been the game’s first goal when Quincy made a nice diving play.

9:14 – Hearing the phrase “Lidstrom lost the puck” feels blasphemous.

9:15 – Good kill by Nashville. Detroit put pressure on for two minutes, but still couldn’t beat Rinne.

9:19 – Refs are swallowing the whistle a bit in this second period. Thank you. I will take a no call over a “what the..” call any day of the week as long as it’s called the same for both teams.

9:21 – Nice effort by Franzen in the final 15 seconds to sneak one by Rinne. Really starting to wonder what we need to do to get one past him.

9:22 – 0-0 after two periods. Detroit leads in the shot department 28-10.

9:30 – Having the window open on a beautiful night, I was just treated to a rendition of “It’s Raining Men” by some of the local kids at my town house complex. Would love to think of something funny to say here, but I’m at a loss for words.

9:33 – After watching the 38th Ford commercial of the night starring Mike Rowe (or that guy in the hat, for those who don’t watch Dirty Jobs), I got to thinking. Has anyone made a career of just being a regular dude as effectively as Mike Rowe. He’s just…a guy. A guy who talks to us with a weird mix of sincerity and sarcasm while wearing a hat at all times. Normally, I would resent someone who is famous for just being an Average Joe, but I don’t mind with him. Dirty Jobs is a cool show and he seems like a cool guy. ::Raises Arnold Palmer:: To Mike Rowe, everybody.

9:39 – Mike Babcock intimidates me. When I have kids, I’m going to tell them that if they’re bad, they don’t have to worry about me yelling at them. I’m calling Mike Babcock. My kids WILL be well-behaved.

9:40 – Puck drops to start the third period. That first goal may be enough to win it for either team tonight.

9:42 – Uh-oh…

9:43 – WOW! David Legwand and the Preds just got jobbed on a big goal. Anyone who disagrees with me should imagine how they would feel if that happened to Franzen. Detroit better take advantage of that gift.

9:45 – Puck don’t lie.

9:45 – Gabriel Bourque comes through with his third goal of the series. Disgusting fact of the night…he had seven in 43 games this season.

9:46 – While I usually don’t like being wrong, I really hope I am about this first goal theory. Mickey Redmond says we’re going to score on this guy eventually. Let’s see.

9:48 – Another Detroit powerplay. Biggest one of the season to this point.

9:49 – This should be interesting.

9:50 – Hudler with a well-placed stick tipped in a wicked slapshot by Kronwall to quickly tie the game with a powerplay goal. Way to shut me up, boys. 1-1 with 16.46 remaining.

9:53 – Detroit is really destroying Nashville in the scoring chance department. We seem to get too fancy for our own good at times, but it’s encouraging to see the puck constantly in Nashville’s zone.

9:55 – My roommate is still not back yet. That gentleman’s legs must have really been asleep.

9:56 – Great passing from Filppula to Zetterberg to Hudler for a shot off the post.

9:56 – Wow…

9:57 – Kevin Klein scores the easiest goal of his career as Howard apparently heads towards the nearest bathroom, leaving an open net for the 2-1 Predator lead. Sure, Martin Erat is a solid player, but I don’t think he warrants three defenders and the goalie going with him on a 3-on-3 rush.

9:58 – KRONWALLED!

10:00 – Detroit comes back from the break on the powerplay. Need some quality chances and not shots from the blue line unless we’ve got some traffic in front. Shooting too quickly is a big reason the Red Wings have gone through scoring lulls on the powerplay this year.

10:08 – One thing I don’t like about hockey is when refs are tricksters with the faceoff. Drop the puck and stop being a jerk.

10:11 – When did icing calls become inconsistent? I may not be the most knowledgeable guy about hockey, but I always thought that was a call that usually wasn’t up for debate.

10:13 – The biggest offseason acquisition for the Red Wings this year should be a new stick manufacturer. For those counting at home, that’s 132 broken sticks for Detroit this series. 117 of those belonged to Pavel Datsyuk.

10:16 – The amount close calls really make it seem like this isn’t our game…or series. Detroit is getting quality chances and has gotten them all game. While Rinne is not “literally” standing on his head like Mickey would have you believe, he is figuratively standing on it.

10:19 - You will hear people complain that we need to rebuild or that we’re not physical enough or that Jimmy Howard sucks. The truth is, Nashville has the better goalie. That is it. In playoff hockey, that is all you need.

10:22 – Nashville’s penalty kill 5-on-5 defense (you know, the one they ran the entire third period of Game 3) is annoyingly effective. I hate it, but I get it.

10:24 – Howard pulled, 1:31 remaining. Do-or-die.

10:25 – Absolutely killer penalty on Zetterberg for the high stick. Can’t happen.

10:26 – I am pretty sure Brad Stuart just scored on his own goal.

10:27 – Nope. Legwand just made up for the goal he should have gotten earlier. Late, game-icing powerplay goal for a 3-1 lead.

10:31 – Well, this was discouraging. We outplayed them in every aspect of the game except for goaltending. Not Howard’s best performance, but Rinne was going to be tough to beat tonight with any between the opposing pipes. Heading back to Nashville for what could be a shorter series than anyone expected.

10:32 – Hey, the Tigers are winning…

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Friday, March 9, 2012

Big Ten Tournament: Quarterfinal Preview/Predictions

Bruce Weber is gone. Northwestern is likely heading to the NIT. March Madness has not wasted any time in providing storylines for Big Ten schools...

1-Michigan State (24-7) vs. 8-Iowa (17-15)

For some reason, this game intrigues me. A conference tournament is a bit early to start prediction 8-seeds over 1-seeds, but Iowa is a team that can catch you on the right night (or afternoon).

The Brandon Dawson injury definitely hurts Michigan State, but not enough to counteract the anger the Spartans have heading into this tournament. Unlike previous years where the Big Ten tournament is used as a tune-up for the big dance, I see the Spartans heading into Championship Week with a bitter taste in their mouth following consecutive losses to Indiana and Ohio State to end the regular season.

The Dawson injury will hurt…just not enough to affect the outcome of this game.

Despite a 19-point, 14-rebound performance against Ohio State, Draymond Green had an uncharacteristically sloppy second half. He forced a number of bad shots and was ineffective on the glass later in the game, but the senior will bounce back with a solid all-around performance against the Hawkeyes.

Brandon Wood played well against the Buckeyes with extended minutes and Derrick Nix complimented Green well in the offensive post.

Iowa snuck past Illinois on Thursday and put forth a great team effort in shutting down Brandon Paul in the victory.

Despite a valiant effort by Matt Gatens and the Hawkeyes, the angry Spartans will cruise to a convincing victory.

Prediction: Michigan State.

4-Wisconsin (23-8) vs. 5-Indiana (25-7)

The best offense in the Big Ten vs. the best defense in the Big Ten.

The Hoosiers have scored at least 70 points in eight of their last nine. The Badgers have given up 70 points only once this season.

This provides an interesting matchup as two well-coached teams with different philosophies face off in what will likely be one of the better games of this tournament.

Wisconsin defeated Indiana 57-50 on Jan. 26th despite shooting a paltry 4-for-17 from three-point range. Wisconsin led the Big Ten in points-allowed this season and is led offensively by one of the better guards in the conference in Jordan Taylor.

Penn State competed with the Hoosiers for a half in the opening round, but a 10-0 second half run put the game out of reach. Jordan Hulls (20 points) and Cody Zeller (19 points, 10 rebounds) were magnificent and accounted for Indiana’s first 22 points of the ballgame.

The win snapped a six-game Big Ten tournament losing streak for the Hoosiers and I see them continuing the trend today.

Prediction: Indiana

2-Michigan (23-8) vs. 10-Minnesota (19-13)

The Golden Gophers are fresh off of an overtime victory over Northwestern in the tournament’s opening round that likely served as a deathblow to the Wildcats’ NCAA tourney aspirations.

Minnesota was the beneficiary of sloppy Wildcat play down the stretch and don’t seem to have the weapons to compete with the co-Big Ten champs.

Freshman Andre Hollins had his best game of the season with 25 points against Northwestern and Rodney Williams can fill it up at times, but the Gophers will need to play near-perfect to get past the Wolverines.

The offensive potency of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. combined with wisdom and hustle of Zack Novak will be too much for Minnesota. If Minnesota makes it close, Novak will find a way to mess it up for Tubby Smith.

Prediction: Michigan

3-Ohio State (25-6) vs. 6-Purdue (21-11)

Robbie Hummel took a backseat on Thursday and let his supporting cast lead the way to a dominating 79-61 victory over Nebraska.

Ohio State looked very flawed against Michigan State last week, but still managed to come away with a two-point victory to secure a share of the conference title.

Jared Sullinger is arguably the best big man in the conference and William Buford is a dangerous, clutch player that can keep his team in contention when teammates are struggling. Deshaun Thomas rounds out the three-headed monster on the offensive end for the Buckeyes with Aaron Craft running a solid point.

The Boilermakers played the Buckeyes tough in an 87-84 loss on Feb. 7th and could catch the co-champs napping as they seem to have a 2-seed locked up regardless of their performance in the conference tournament.

Purdue is nowhere near as deep as Ohio State, but if Hummel is on, he could be the best player on the floor.

I’m going with the upset in this one.

Prediction: Purdue

Round 1: 3-1

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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Big Ten Tournament: Round 1 Preview/Predictions

8-Iowa (16-15, 8-10 Big Ten) vs. 9-Illinois (17-14, 6-12 Big Ten)

Iowa is a troubling team in that they have plenty of quality wins (Wisconsin twice, Michigan by 16, Indiana by 22) and a number terrible losses (Campbell by 16, Northern Iowa by 20, Michigan State by 34). Teams like this make filling out brackets or making predictions of any sort frustrating because it’s anyone’s guess which team actually shows up.

Iowa’s Matt Gatens can score with the best of them (ask Wisconsin and Indiana) and is one of the best three-point shooters in the Big Ten. His matchup with Illinois guard Brandon Paul, who held him to just five second-half points in their only battle this season, should be one of the better duels we see in the opening round.

The Fighting Illini got off to a torrid start by opening the season 15-3 with quality wins over Gonzaga, Ohio State and Michigan State on their resume. Since its five-point victory over the Buckeyes on Jan. 10th, Illinois has gone 2-11 down the stretch and turned a team destined for an NCAA tournament berth into one that will likely be looking for a new coach during the offseason.

An interesting note during this collapse is that Illinois’ only win in its final nine games came against Iowa on Feb. 26th.

This game has the potential to be close and I see Iowa ending the Bruce Weber-era at Illinois with a narrow victory, possibly in overtime, thanks to 25+ points from Gatens.

Prediction: Iowa

5-Indiana (24-7, 11-7 Big Ten) vs. 12-Penn State (12-19, 4-14 Big Ten)

Indiana is a victim of being a good team in a very good conference. The Hoosiers have won seven of their last eight, highlighted by a 15-point victory over Michigan State on Feb. 28th, and will look to use the tournament to improve their seeding heading into the big dance. Currently projected to be a #4 seed, the Hoosiers could easily jump up a spot by making a run in the Big Ten tourney.

Cody Zeller is one of the best freshmen in the nation and has had his way with Nittany Lion defenders this season, averaging 14 points on 11-for-13 shooting in two games against Penn State this season.

The Nittany Lions have gotten cozy in the Big Ten cellar and never seem to do more than occasionally scare one of the big boys in the conference (losses within 6 vs. Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana).

Penn State junior guard Tim Frazier has burst onto the scene this year and leads the Nittany Lions in points, rebounds, assists and steals this season. Sophomore Jermaine Marshall poses the only other offensive threat (27 points vs. Michigan on Sunday) as Penn State just does not have the firepower to contend with a team of Indiana’s character.

Though Indiana never seems to play quite as well away from Assembly Hall, but the Hoosiers will cruise to a second-round matchup with Michigan State.

Prediction: Indiana

7-Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big Ten) vs. 10-Minnesota (18-13, 6-12 Big Ten)

Northwestern currently sits on the bubble for its first-ever NCAA tournament big and a win over Minnesota would not only help, it is imperative if the Wildcats look to dance in March.

The Wildcats missed out on a few chances to earn statement victories after they lost a pair of overtime heartbreakers to Michigan and came up just short in the final seconds against Ohio State last Wednesday. Any one of those victories could have been enough to lock them up, but the Wildcats must now win on Thursday (and probably once more) to secure a spot in the field.

John Shurna is the Big Ten’s leading scorer and Drew Crawford is one of the conference’s most dangerous shooters. Both can take over a game at a moment’s notice and the Gophers will be hard-pressed to stop either one of these player from putting up 20 points on Thursday.

Minnesota’s win over Nebraska on Saturday snapped a six-game losing streak that featured five games against ranked teams with the sixth loss coming against the Wildcats. The 18 wins they have earned this season shows that they are better than many teams in the county…just not many teams in the Big Ten. Unfortunately for the Gophers, Northwester is one of those Big Ten teams.

Prediction: Northwestern

6-Purdue (20-11, 10-8 Big Ten) vs. 11-Nebraska (12-17, 4-14 Big Ten)

Purdue’s punched its ticket to the NCAA tournament on Feb. 25th by dealing Michigan its first loss at the Crisler Center in a 75-61 victory over the favored Wolverines. The Boilermakers will now look to gain some momentum heading into the dance, where they will likely be saddled with the difficult road of an 8 or 9 seed.

Purdue’s elder-statesman Robbie Hummel returned to form this season after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. The senior has played in all 31 games and ranks 4th in the Big Ten in points (16.8), rebounds (7.0) and free-throw percentage (82.8%).

In case you weren’t sure before, we brought Nebraska over from the Big 12 for football. The Cornhuskers have struggled mightily in their inaugural season in the Big Ten four conference wins and 10 conference losses of 10 or more points.

Senior guard and former LSU Tiger Bo Spencer has been the lone bright spot for the Cornhusker offense this season and was the only Nebraska player in double-figures in an 83-65 loss at Purdue on Feb. 22nd.

The Cornhuskers competed during the football season, but they have yet to show they can handle a deep, talented conference like the Big Ten. This will continue on Thursday.

Prediction: Purdue

The quarterfinals will be previewed following the Purdue/Nebraska game concludes Thursday night.

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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

If I ran things: 2012 NBA All-Star teams

"If I ran things..." is a description of how something would be different if I were in charge. Starting small, I decided to take a look that this year's All-Star teams and make a few personnel changes.

Also, under my regime, the rosters would be expanded to 13 players with the 13th player being someone who is not necessarily deserving of an All-Star spot, but is someone who everyone (or just me) would like to see play in the game.

The 13th man on each roster will be the "wild card." Under the iron-clad, non-negotiable rules that I have just made up, a "wild card" may only be on the court when the other "wild card" is also on the court. Also, the coaches have the opportunity to put these players in at any point, but MUST play them for the duration of the game's final five minutes.

Here is how the rosters would look if I ran things.

EAST STARTERS:

PG: Derrick Rose (22.0 ppg, 7.7 apg, 3.5 rpg) - A year removed from being the youngest MVP in NBA history grants him a pass on missing a few games this year. He has been stellar once again this season and continues to garner massive amounts of respect at a very young age (23). Look for the budding rivalry between the Heat to continue this postseason.

SG: Dwyane Wade (22.1 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.3 rpg) - Has dealt with nagging injuries (again) this season. You know you've made it when you can be having your worst statistical season since you rookie year and still be a no-doubter at your position.

SF: Lebron James (27.9 ppg, 8.2 rbg, 6.8 apg) - Best player on the league's best team (Sorry, OKC). Lebron hating/defending aside, he is the most complete player in the league and seems to actually be improving. Be afraid, Chicago. Be very afraid.

PF: Chris Bosh (18.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, .488 fg%) - Despite clearly being the third wheel in Miami, he is still the best power forward in the East. I don't like it any more than you do.

C: Dwight Howard (20.3 ppg, 15.3 rpg, 2.1 bpg) - Another solid season for the big man on that other team in Florida. The 26-year-old (can't believe he's still that young) has the Magic sitting in the #3 spot in the East, though you would never know that based on ESPN's coverage and Howard's weekly proclamation of possible suitors.

PREDICTION: Howard will have such a good time playing with this talented group of guys during the All Star game that he will make a statement that he wouldn't mind getting traded to the Eastern Conference All-Star Team.

EAST RESERVES:

PG: Deron Williams - The New Jersey thing doesn't seem to be working out. Williams knows it, New Jersey knows it and, more importantly, Mark Cuban knows it.

PG Kyrie Irving - The best rookie in a good class of guards. The Cavs could easily be a single-digit win team right now, but Irving makes them watchable.

SG: Nick Young - I know. The Wizards are terrible. My main rationale is that he is a good young player and I'm sick of Joe Johnson making the All-Star Game.

SF Danny Granger - He is struggling from the field this season, but still finds ways to score. Replacing Paul Pierce with Granger is not a sign of disrespect to the Celtic vet; it is a metaphoric passing of the torch for the role of "perennial Eastern Conference reserve small forward."

SF Andre Iguodala - He doesn't have the best stats or lead his team in scoring, but he is the backbone of a surprisingly good 76ers team and a very solid all-around player. He is what Piston fans wish Tayshaun was.

PF Josh Smith - I keep waiting for him to turn that corner and I'm starting to worry that he never will. He is this generation's Rasheed Wallace in that he seems like he should be much more impressive than he actually is given the tools that he has. That being said, 16 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game is good enough for a reserve spot.

C Greg Monroe - It's not because I'm a Detroit homer. It's because he's better than Roy Hibbert.

EASTERN CONFERENCE WILD CARD: Jeremy Lin, Knicks PG.

Duh. Without questLIN, Lin has been the best story of the lockout shortLINed NBA seasLIN. I'm not sure it can be called a "rags to riches" story if the kid is a Harvard grad, but it has been LINteraining nonetheless. Let's be honest...sLINce the All-Star game is a popularity contest anyway, why not put the league's most popular player LIN? The only drawback I find in the Lin phenomLINon is that it has stoLIN a lot of the love I feel our Western fun pick should be getting.

(I was aiming for eight Lin puns in this description. MissLIN accomplished.)

RUNNER-UP: JaVale McGee, Wizards C.

You just know he would do something goofy. I can just imagine him stealing the ball from a teammate and running a 2-on-1 with a player from the opposing team, probably Chris Paul, only to have the picture-perfect alley-oop pass go through his hands and out of bounds. As JaVale goes to guard against his own team's in-bounds pass, Derrick Rose comes over and spends the next 45 seconds convincing JaVale that they are on the same side. TNT mercifully goes to a TV timeout and we next see JaVale sitting on the bench with a towel on his head, occasionally looking back-and-forth between the two benches with a confused look on his face.


WEST STARTERS:

PG: Tony Parker (19.5 ppg, 7.9 apg, .456 fg%) - I know, I know. Should be Chris Paul, right? This has more to do with the Spurs' performance as a team than it does with the difference between these two players. Parker leads San Antonio, who is currently #2 in the Western Conference and has won 11 straight, in scoring and assists with a declining Tim Duncan, an oft-injured Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson in the starting lineup (?!?!). I'm tossing the guy a bone. He deserves it.

SG: Kobe Bryant (29.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.0 apg) - So much for slowing down with age...

SF: Kevin Durant (27.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .516 fg%) - Probably the best pure scorer in the league, even if a certain someone on his team thinks HE is (Hint: His name rhymes with Blussell Shlestbrook). Durant is having his best season in assists, rebounds and field goal percentage and is leading a young, exciting Thunder team towards the #1 seed in the Western Conference.

PF: Kevin Love (25.5 ppg, 14.2 rpg, .353 3pt%) - If he dunked as ferociously as Blake Griffin, people would talk about him more. People WILL talk about him more when he eventually wins his first MVP. Mark my words, if Lebron takes a year off from being...ya know...Lebron, the MVP is his for the taking.

C: Andrew Bynum (16.3 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 2.1 bpg) - FINALLY. Bynum is playing the best basketball of his career and seems to be meeting (or surpassing) the expectations set on him out of high school. At the tender age of 24, Bynum may see many All-Star game starts in his future assuming he can stay healthy.

WEST RESERVES:

PG Chris Paul - The Clippers dominating Sportscenter coverage and leading the Lakers in the standings is still weird to me. Paul is showing that he was worth the off-season hype and the Clips look like a lock for the playoffs this season.

PG Steve Nash - Still leads the league in assists. Still shoots at ridiculous percentages across the board. Still wish he would get shopped to a contender so that he can get a much-deserved ring.

SG Russell Westbrook - Why is it that I know he's a shooting guard, he knows he's a shooting guard, but the Oklahoma City Thunder does not he's a shooting guard?

SF Rudy Gay - Probably the best small forward in the Western Conference without a spider-influenced nickname.

PF Blake Griffin - Heaven help the Western Conference when he develops a jump shot...

PF David Lee - This is the type of guy you really only hear about when he's a free agent. It's a shame.

PF LaMarcus Aldridge - HOW IS THIS HIS FIRST ALL-STAR GAME???

WESTERN CONFERENCE WILD CARD: Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves PG.

You can all have Lin. I'm a big Rubio slappy and he is adapting to the NBA much quicker than I thought he would. He already knows how to distribute and when his basketball IQ matures a bit, the combination with Kevin Love is going to only get better. It would be like a modern version of Stockton and Malone only Love can shoot three's and Stockton probably looked older than Rubio when he was four years old.

RUNNER-UP: Metta World Peace, Lakers F.

Admit it. The press conference after the game would be much sweeter if he was on the team.

"HEY! HEY, ALL THE WAY OVER THERE ON YOUR LAPTOP! ACKNOWLEDGE ME, PLEASE!"

Don't worry, Mr. World Peace...or is it Mr. Peace? Can I just call you Metta? Ok, thanks...Metta, I do acknowledge you.

Until Next Time,
SP

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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

49ers D immune to the lost art of tackling in today's NFL

Ever since the NFL has implemented its rules aimed at protecting quarterbacks and receivers from unprotected hits, there has been clamoring from players, analysts and fans alike voicing displeasure with the attempt to "wussify" the National Football League.

I have echoed this sentiment for quite a while as Brian Dawkins has been my favorite NFL player for years. His ability to lead, tackle and do shoulder rolls during his entrance endeared the long-time Eagle to me. From decleating Alge Crumpler in the 2004 NFC Championship game to his ability to occasionally german suplex opponents a la Kurt Angle, his aggressive, hard-hitting style always appealed to me.

I was a card-carrying member of this group and, as a fan of defense, I was offended by the idea of NFL officials trying to take away the big hits that I had grown to know and love every Sunday.

I thought this could ruin the game.

The San Francisco 49ers have changed my opinion.

Of the many storylines in San Fran's 20-17 overtime loss to the Giants, such as the inevitable comparison between Eli and Peyton (enough already), the question as to whether or not Alex Smith "has arrived" (please...) and which fast-food chain will Kyle Williams be working for next year (my money is on In-N-Out Burger...darkhorse pick), the biggest takeaway I took from this game was that the 49ers have the best tackling team defense that I have seen in my lifetime.

The 11-hats-to-the-ball mentality of this team is far superior to any other in the league, including the aging Steelers and Ravens.

Patrick Willis (who is not only the best linebacker in the league, but is as good RIGHT NOW as Ray Lewis was in his prime) put on an "Open-Field, Solo Tackling for Dummies" performance while the mere presence NaVorro Bowman caused Victor Cruz to do a convincing Claude Lemieux impression twice on crossing routes in the second half.

If one guy didn't bringing you down, which they normally did, then four others did.

The tackling clinic put on by the 49ers made me realize what the real problem is: many NFL players either can't or won't tackle.

Let me preface this by saying that the unwillingness to properly tackle is not the ONLY question that can be raised with today's game. Are their questionable and downright ludicrous calls on a gamely basis? Absolutely. Does it seem like NFL referees are a bit trigger happy? That's an understatement. Does Ed Hochuli do push ups or does he simply push the Earth down? I choose to believe the latter.

The one point that defensive enthusiasts fail to bring up is the omission of basic tackling principles in an effort to make the Sportcenter Top Ten.

What are the first things you are taught in pee-wee football when it comes to tackling? Break down into a good tackling position, wrap up and drive through the ball carrier.

The problem is that if you truly look at the way most NFL players approach the ball carrier, none of these rules are followed.

Take the NFC Divisional round matchup between the Giants and the Green Bay Packers for instance. In the first quarter, New York's Hakeem Nicks ran 15 yards down the field and darted across the middle on a crossing route. After making the catch and taking two steps, Green Bay's Charlie Peprah (starting SS, 94 tackles, five interceptions this season) was primed to end the play there, giving the Giants a first down near mid-field.

Instead of breaking down, wrapping up and driving through Nicks to end the play, Peprah ran in leading with nothing but a shoulder, did not even attempt to wrap the athletic receiver and promptly bounced off the former Tar Heel as he scampered for a 66-yard touchdown.

This is not to pick on Peprah specifically. This is to point out a flaw found in nearly every NFL defense. Everyone is looking for the big, ambulance-beckoning hit without realizing that only bad came come from this style of play in today's game.

Imagine if Nicks did not have time to set his feet and absorb the hit. If he had just landed and Peprah landed the same hit for a tackle or pass breakup, he would have been flagged and fined. One of two things will happen on this sort of play: a flag or a touchdown. I'm not saying that a flag is right; I'm saying that a flag will be thrown. Ask James Harrison.

The argument that NFL players were taught to play this way is disingenuous. They were taught to play like the 49ers.

The moral of the story is that you can be an effective, intimidating, hard-hitting defense while still playing within the confines of the new NFL. We just have to get back to basics.

Other thoughts from Sunday's 49ers/Giants game:

-Vernon Davis should be (but isn't) as productive as Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. I cannot imagine what that guy could do with Brees or Brady throwing him the ball.

-Slow motion makes every hit look so much better. The expressions on Eli's face on a few of those sacks were goofier than his regular face.

-It was nice to see Devin Thomas staying busy.

-The 49ers desperately need a wide receiver in this years draft. I say they trade up a few spots for Notre Dame's Michael Floyd or South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery.

-Justin Tuck had the coolest facemask in football.

-Brandon Jacobs is 8-for-16 for his career at converting fourth-and-one plays. Surprising giving his size and the Giants history of running the football. He was invisible on Sunday.

Until next time,
SP

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