Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Big Ten Tournament: Round 1 Preview/Predictions

8-Iowa (16-15, 8-10 Big Ten) vs. 9-Illinois (17-14, 6-12 Big Ten)

Iowa is a troubling team in that they have plenty of quality wins (Wisconsin twice, Michigan by 16, Indiana by 22) and a number terrible losses (Campbell by 16, Northern Iowa by 20, Michigan State by 34). Teams like this make filling out brackets or making predictions of any sort frustrating because it’s anyone’s guess which team actually shows up.

Iowa’s Matt Gatens can score with the best of them (ask Wisconsin and Indiana) and is one of the best three-point shooters in the Big Ten. His matchup with Illinois guard Brandon Paul, who held him to just five second-half points in their only battle this season, should be one of the better duels we see in the opening round.

The Fighting Illini got off to a torrid start by opening the season 15-3 with quality wins over Gonzaga, Ohio State and Michigan State on their resume. Since its five-point victory over the Buckeyes on Jan. 10th, Illinois has gone 2-11 down the stretch and turned a team destined for an NCAA tournament berth into one that will likely be looking for a new coach during the offseason.

An interesting note during this collapse is that Illinois’ only win in its final nine games came against Iowa on Feb. 26th.

This game has the potential to be close and I see Iowa ending the Bruce Weber-era at Illinois with a narrow victory, possibly in overtime, thanks to 25+ points from Gatens.

Prediction: Iowa

5-Indiana (24-7, 11-7 Big Ten) vs. 12-Penn State (12-19, 4-14 Big Ten)

Indiana is a victim of being a good team in a very good conference. The Hoosiers have won seven of their last eight, highlighted by a 15-point victory over Michigan State on Feb. 28th, and will look to use the tournament to improve their seeding heading into the big dance. Currently projected to be a #4 seed, the Hoosiers could easily jump up a spot by making a run in the Big Ten tourney.

Cody Zeller is one of the best freshmen in the nation and has had his way with Nittany Lion defenders this season, averaging 14 points on 11-for-13 shooting in two games against Penn State this season.

The Nittany Lions have gotten cozy in the Big Ten cellar and never seem to do more than occasionally scare one of the big boys in the conference (losses within 6 vs. Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana).

Penn State junior guard Tim Frazier has burst onto the scene this year and leads the Nittany Lions in points, rebounds, assists and steals this season. Sophomore Jermaine Marshall poses the only other offensive threat (27 points vs. Michigan on Sunday) as Penn State just does not have the firepower to contend with a team of Indiana’s character.

Though Indiana never seems to play quite as well away from Assembly Hall, but the Hoosiers will cruise to a second-round matchup with Michigan State.

Prediction: Indiana

7-Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 Big Ten) vs. 10-Minnesota (18-13, 6-12 Big Ten)

Northwestern currently sits on the bubble for its first-ever NCAA tournament big and a win over Minnesota would not only help, it is imperative if the Wildcats look to dance in March.

The Wildcats missed out on a few chances to earn statement victories after they lost a pair of overtime heartbreakers to Michigan and came up just short in the final seconds against Ohio State last Wednesday. Any one of those victories could have been enough to lock them up, but the Wildcats must now win on Thursday (and probably once more) to secure a spot in the field.

John Shurna is the Big Ten’s leading scorer and Drew Crawford is one of the conference’s most dangerous shooters. Both can take over a game at a moment’s notice and the Gophers will be hard-pressed to stop either one of these player from putting up 20 points on Thursday.

Minnesota’s win over Nebraska on Saturday snapped a six-game losing streak that featured five games against ranked teams with the sixth loss coming against the Wildcats. The 18 wins they have earned this season shows that they are better than many teams in the county…just not many teams in the Big Ten. Unfortunately for the Gophers, Northwester is one of those Big Ten teams.

Prediction: Northwestern

6-Purdue (20-11, 10-8 Big Ten) vs. 11-Nebraska (12-17, 4-14 Big Ten)

Purdue’s punched its ticket to the NCAA tournament on Feb. 25th by dealing Michigan its first loss at the Crisler Center in a 75-61 victory over the favored Wolverines. The Boilermakers will now look to gain some momentum heading into the dance, where they will likely be saddled with the difficult road of an 8 or 9 seed.

Purdue’s elder-statesman Robbie Hummel returned to form this season after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. The senior has played in all 31 games and ranks 4th in the Big Ten in points (16.8), rebounds (7.0) and free-throw percentage (82.8%).

In case you weren’t sure before, we brought Nebraska over from the Big 12 for football. The Cornhuskers have struggled mightily in their inaugural season in the Big Ten four conference wins and 10 conference losses of 10 or more points.

Senior guard and former LSU Tiger Bo Spencer has been the lone bright spot for the Cornhusker offense this season and was the only Nebraska player in double-figures in an 83-65 loss at Purdue on Feb. 22nd.

The Cornhuskers competed during the football season, but they have yet to show they can handle a deep, talented conference like the Big Ten. This will continue on Thursday.

Prediction: Purdue

The quarterfinals will be previewed following the Purdue/Nebraska game concludes Thursday night.

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