Friday, March 9, 2012

Big Ten Tournament: Quarterfinal Preview/Predictions

Bruce Weber is gone. Northwestern is likely heading to the NIT. March Madness has not wasted any time in providing storylines for Big Ten schools...

1-Michigan State (24-7) vs. 8-Iowa (17-15)

For some reason, this game intrigues me. A conference tournament is a bit early to start prediction 8-seeds over 1-seeds, but Iowa is a team that can catch you on the right night (or afternoon).

The Brandon Dawson injury definitely hurts Michigan State, but not enough to counteract the anger the Spartans have heading into this tournament. Unlike previous years where the Big Ten tournament is used as a tune-up for the big dance, I see the Spartans heading into Championship Week with a bitter taste in their mouth following consecutive losses to Indiana and Ohio State to end the regular season.

The Dawson injury will hurt…just not enough to affect the outcome of this game.

Despite a 19-point, 14-rebound performance against Ohio State, Draymond Green had an uncharacteristically sloppy second half. He forced a number of bad shots and was ineffective on the glass later in the game, but the senior will bounce back with a solid all-around performance against the Hawkeyes.

Brandon Wood played well against the Buckeyes with extended minutes and Derrick Nix complimented Green well in the offensive post.

Iowa snuck past Illinois on Thursday and put forth a great team effort in shutting down Brandon Paul in the victory.

Despite a valiant effort by Matt Gatens and the Hawkeyes, the angry Spartans will cruise to a convincing victory.

Prediction: Michigan State.

4-Wisconsin (23-8) vs. 5-Indiana (25-7)

The best offense in the Big Ten vs. the best defense in the Big Ten.

The Hoosiers have scored at least 70 points in eight of their last nine. The Badgers have given up 70 points only once this season.

This provides an interesting matchup as two well-coached teams with different philosophies face off in what will likely be one of the better games of this tournament.

Wisconsin defeated Indiana 57-50 on Jan. 26th despite shooting a paltry 4-for-17 from three-point range. Wisconsin led the Big Ten in points-allowed this season and is led offensively by one of the better guards in the conference in Jordan Taylor.

Penn State competed with the Hoosiers for a half in the opening round, but a 10-0 second half run put the game out of reach. Jordan Hulls (20 points) and Cody Zeller (19 points, 10 rebounds) were magnificent and accounted for Indiana’s first 22 points of the ballgame.

The win snapped a six-game Big Ten tournament losing streak for the Hoosiers and I see them continuing the trend today.

Prediction: Indiana

2-Michigan (23-8) vs. 10-Minnesota (19-13)

The Golden Gophers are fresh off of an overtime victory over Northwestern in the tournament’s opening round that likely served as a deathblow to the Wildcats’ NCAA tourney aspirations.

Minnesota was the beneficiary of sloppy Wildcat play down the stretch and don’t seem to have the weapons to compete with the co-Big Ten champs.

Freshman Andre Hollins had his best game of the season with 25 points against Northwestern and Rodney Williams can fill it up at times, but the Gophers will need to play near-perfect to get past the Wolverines.

The offensive potency of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. combined with wisdom and hustle of Zack Novak will be too much for Minnesota. If Minnesota makes it close, Novak will find a way to mess it up for Tubby Smith.

Prediction: Michigan

3-Ohio State (25-6) vs. 6-Purdue (21-11)

Robbie Hummel took a backseat on Thursday and let his supporting cast lead the way to a dominating 79-61 victory over Nebraska.

Ohio State looked very flawed against Michigan State last week, but still managed to come away with a two-point victory to secure a share of the conference title.

Jared Sullinger is arguably the best big man in the conference and William Buford is a dangerous, clutch player that can keep his team in contention when teammates are struggling. Deshaun Thomas rounds out the three-headed monster on the offensive end for the Buckeyes with Aaron Craft running a solid point.

The Boilermakers played the Buckeyes tough in an 87-84 loss on Feb. 7th and could catch the co-champs napping as they seem to have a 2-seed locked up regardless of their performance in the conference tournament.

Purdue is nowhere near as deep as Ohio State, but if Hummel is on, he could be the best player on the floor.

I’m going with the upset in this one.

Prediction: Purdue

Round 1: 3-1

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